Rainfall Prediction Model for the Real-Time Operation of the Batujai-Pengga Cascade Reservoir
Abstract
Rainfall forecasting plays a crucial role in water resource management, especially in the context of reservoir operation. In this case, the Annual Plan for Reservoir Operation (RTOW) plays a crucial role in regulating the outflow under reservoir inflow conditions. The objective of this research is to develop an RTOW input prediction method and real-time operational rule curve for the Batujai-Pengga cascade reservoir in the Lombok River Basin. The optimal simulation of water balance was carried out on an annual basis (for RTOW) and every 10 days (for real-time operational) due to two different input conditions: deterministic inflow forecast based on the reliable discharge and stochastic inflow forecast generated from the rainfall forecast transformed into flow using the calibrated HEC-HMS model. The optimal simulation is facilitated by MS Excel-VBA based on the principle of equal sharing, with the K-factor serving as an indicator of water sufficiency and the S-factor serving as an indicator of the storage level in cascade reservoirs. This experiment compared the real reservoir water level (MAW) with the output from the simulation. The analysis yielded notable discrepancies between the stochastic and deterministic inflow inputs in the MAW simulation. The former exhibited a range of 0.39–1.26 m, while the latter spanned 0.66–1.23 m, both of which diverged significantly from the actual MAW condition. In accordance with the above results, it is recommended that when creating the reservoir rule curve, the input should be based on the updated rainfall prediction. The results of the simulation, conducted in accordance with the real-time rule curve and utilising rainfall updating on a per-period basis for a period of three months, indicate that the implementation incorporating stochastic inflow is more compatible with the actual reservoir water level than that incorporating deterministic inflow. Furthermore, the former exhibits a superior correlation coefficient and RMSE value.
Keywords: inflow, HEC-HMS, operational rule curve, reservoir.
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