Application of Spatial Regression to the 2017 DKI Jakarta Regional Election
Abstract
The DKI Jakarta elections for 2017-2022 have captured the attention of researchers due to their intriguing nature. One particularly fascinating aspect is the unexpected victory of candidate pair (Paslon) number 3, Anies-Sandi, which was initially not favored by most opinion polls. This study explores how political preference factors, as described in the sociological model, contribute to the formation of base and non-base areas of Anies-Sandi voters in the DKI Jakarta elections for the 2017-2022 period. This study also evaluates the spatial impact of the influence of these social factors. The novelty of research that examines the application of spatial regression in the 2017 DKI Jakarta Pilkada is an interesting innovation that has never been studied before. The base and non-base areas are identified per sub-district with the location quotion (LQ) formula, whereas the identification of global spatial patterns uses the Moran index calculation formula. The free variables in the spatial regression model are designed to adopt a sociological model of political preferences that includes the free variables of sex ratio, percentage of young voters, percentage of highly educated population, percentage of formal sector workers, and percentage of non-Muslim population. The results of this study found that the Anies-Sandi base and non-voter base areas were spread to most sub-districts in DKI Jakarta, but their distribution did not form a particular global spatial pattern. However, it was found that there was an error-type spatial dependency in the first- and second-round LQ models, so it was necessary to perform spatial regression of errors. After spatial regression error, it was found that the sex ratio had a positive and significant effect on LQ in the first round, and the percentage of formal sector workers and the percentage of non-Muslim population had a negative and significant effect on LQ in the first and second rounds. Meanwhile, the lambda coefficient is positive and significant in the first and second rounds of the LQ error spatial regression models, which shows the spatial effect in the residual model. In terms of goodness of fit, the error spatial regression model is more efficient than the OLS model, which is indicated by the relatively low AIC value of the spatial error model compared with the OLS model.
Keywords: political geography, electoral geography, location quotion, Moran’s index, spatial regression.
Full Text:
PDFReferences
AGNEW J., MITCHELL K., and TOAL G. A Companion to Political Geography. Blackwell Publishing, 2003. https://www.s-gs.de/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Companion_to_Political_Geography.pdf
STOREY D. Political Geography. In: KOBAYASHI A. (ed.) International Encyclopedia of Human Geography. 2nd ed. Elsevier, 2020: 199-206. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-08-102295-5.10488-3
DOW K. J. A Comparative Spatial Analysis of Majoritarian and Proportional Elections. Electoral Studies, 2001, 20: 109-125. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-3794(99)00041-4
KLOS J. Determining Spatial Correlations between Voting Behavior and Selected Demographic Variables in a Changing Electorate. Middle States Geographer, 2008, 41: 19-26. https://middlestates.wpenginepowered.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/3_Klos.pdf
ESKOV A. Spatial Patterns and Irregularities of the Electoral Data: General Elections in Canada. Master’s thesis, Universitat Jaume I, 2014. https://repositori.uji.es/xmlui/handle/10234/143205
VALDEZ S. Visibility and Votes: A Spatial Analysis of Anti-Immigrant Voting in Sweden. Migration Studies, 2014, 2: 162-188. https://doi.org/10.1093/migration/mnu029
SAIB S. M. Spatial Autocorrelation in Voting Turnout. Journal of Biometrics & Biostatistics, 2017, 8(5): 376. https://doi.org/10.4172/2155-6180.1000376
ISMAIL N., ABDUL KHANAN M. F., ABDUL RAHMAN M. Z., DIN A. M., ISMAIL Z., and ABDUL RAZAK A. N. Voters’ Perception towards Political Party: A Geospatial Case Study of Young Voters in Johor Bahru. The International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, 2018, 42: 325-337. https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-4-W9-325-2018
YUSTININGRUM E. R., & ICWANUDDIN W. Political Participation and Voting Behavior in General Election 2014. Jurnal Penelitian Politik, 2015, 12(1): 117-135. https://doi.org/10.14203/jpp.v12i1.533
MUJANI S., WILLIAM R. L., and KUSKRIDHO A. Kuasa Rakyat: Analisis tentang Perilaku Memilih dalam Pemilihan Legislatif dan Presiden Indonesia Pasca-Orde Baru. Mizan Publika, Jakarta, 2012.
ANSELIN L., & REY S. J. Modern spatial econometrics in practice: A guide to GeoDa, GeoDaSpace and PySAL. GeoDa Press LLC, Chicago, 2014.
LESAGE J. P. The Theory and Practice of Spatial Econometrics. Department of Economics, University of Toledo, Toledo, 1999. https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/55768690/sbook-libre.pdf?1518297040=&response-content-disposition=inline%3B+filename%3DThe_theory_and_practice_of_spatial_econo.pdf&Expires=1715763538&Signature=U-MVZtrkZtSQz6c5L0SK0NL0~Y-xAa9CqOHQ4D5NB6FRglfrQmQGOByYn2PGeCBpjtViHBJXItNVGdPQ~nd2z97aKcRq8kXIxHYNTbkyQANeOD5V-FHX3PrfP~FNJ6i0wEZ3o-6GfmDm9hqiZg3ABFKJjv63Adq0BndDTfh4O~7DtlruSpvIwUDGGQnLr6vo5O6e91jSeL0tItEm73He6GLlJeIjve7qSZNCqgilXzgJS02Cz3qvGRGvMws3FDwnXas2IZIhvKySoAa2kEdrbTLNHYbBBHm7KoOQHVex6~dtWqvxq43hLWv8FDTeKHBTPK0w-K-NfAw~iJ0PVq3jKw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAJLOHF5GGSLRBV4ZA
ACHJAR N. Analisis Pola dan Konsentrasi Spasial Sektor Industri Manufaktur di Provinsi Banten 2010-2018. In: RAHATININGTYAS S. D., & HASILAH F. (eds.) Aplikasi Spasial Untuk Pembangunan. Departemen Geografi Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Indonesia, Depok, 2019: 54-64. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Nurul-Rahatiningtyas/publication/354046916_A_P_L_I_K_A_S_I_S_P_A_S_I_A_L_U_N_T_U_K_P_E_M_B_A_N_G_U_N_A_N_A_P_L_I_K_A_S_I_S_P_A_S_I_A_L_U_N_T_U_K_P_E_M_B_A_N_G_U_N_A_N/links/612084e8232f9558659da6a9/A-P-L-I-K-A-S-I-S-P-A-S-I-A-L-U-N-T-U-K-P-E-M-B-A-N-G-U-N-A-N-A-P-L-I-K-A-S-I-S-P-A-S-I-A-L-U-N-T-U-K-P-E-M-B-A-N-G-U-N-A-N.pdf#page=59
HAMDAN O. P. Rasio Tenaga Pendidik, Rasio Tenaga Kesehatan, dan Capaian Pembangunan Manusia dalam Analisis Spasial. Master’s thesis, Universitas Indonesia, Depok, 2019.
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.
