Does Climate Change Affect Rice Yield? Evidence from the Mekong River Delta, Vietnam

Thi Anh Nguyet Vo, Minh Tuan Cao, Ngoc Duc Nguyen


This study investigates the effects of climate change on rice yield in Vietnam’s Mekong River Delta. Using provincial-level data spanning 2010-2019, the research employs feasible generalized least squares to address heteroskedasticity. Findings reveal distinct impacts of climate change on rice yield between the winter-spring and summer-autumn crops. While sunshine hours and land area positively influence yield in both seasons, the highest water level affects only the summer-autumn crop. Conversely, average salinity negatively affects both crops, with a 1-g/liter increase reducing yields by 0.535 quintals/ha in winter-spring and 0.101 quintals/ha in summer-autumn. Although rising humidity diminishes winter-spring crop yield, it does not affect the summer-autumn crop. Moreover, scaling up leads to increased rice productivity in both seasons. These insights underscore the importance of climate-resilient agricultural strategies in the Mekong River Delta. The findings can help local governments and policymakers concretely quantify the impact of climate change on rice productivity. Therefore, appropriate policies can be developed to address climate change to improve rice productivity and increase farmers’ incomes.


Keywords: climate change, rice yield, sustainability, Mekong River Delta.

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